李美荣;朱琳;杜继稳;

• 1:陕西省经济作物气象服务台
• 2:陕西省气象局

摘要(Abstract)：

以苹果为主的果业是陕西省支柱产业,利用陕西省关中、陕北47个县(区)气象资料及6个苹果物候气象观测站资料,采用线性倾向估计方法研究了苹果产区冬季气温变化趋势,结果表明气温变化呈上升趋势。应用模式Y=!FiXi计算、分析了气候变化背景下陕西苹果北扩主要限制因素-花期冻害在陕西省苹果产区的发生风险。将Y(冻害灾损率)作为区划指标,以县为单位将陕西苹果花期冻害风险分为4个区:重度风险区、中度风险区、轻度风险区、基本无风险区。对区划结果进行了分区评述,提出了陕西苹果产业北扩建议,陕北北部的佳县、吴堡、绥德、府谷、横山、米脂、子洲、子长是花期冻害基本无风险区及轻度风险区内地区,可优先发展苹果产业。

关键词(KeyWords)： 苹果;气候变化;霜冻

Abstract:

Keywords:

基金项目(Foundation):

作者(Author): 李美荣;朱琳;杜继稳;

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