影响山核桃产量气象因子的调查与分析Meteorological impact on the yield of Carya cathayensis
焦洁洁;李绍进;黄坚钦;徐常青;夏国华;黄兴召;
摘要(Abstract)：
【目的】为了揭示气象因子对山核桃产量的影响,【方法】以临安市3个主要山核桃产区2008—2010年气象数据和实际山核桃产量数据,运用数学建模和数理统计方法分析山核桃产量和气温、降雨量及降水时间之间的关系,建立回归模型。【结果】结果表明,山核桃产量与花芽分化期日均温度呈显著正相关性,相关系数0.946;与开花授粉期降雨量、降水时间呈显著负相关性,相关系数分别为-0.829、-0.796;模型计算得临界日均气温为2.4℃,降雨量临界值162 mm,平均降水时间临界值21 d。【结论】山核桃花芽分化期和开花期极端天气对其产量有一定的影响。
关键词(KeyWords)： 山核桃;产量;气象因子;分析;线性回归
基金项目(Foundation): 国家自然科学基金(30872047);; 浙江农林大学研究生科研创新基金项目(3122013240148);; 浙江省科技厅重大项目(2011C14010);; 浙江省林业厅项目(2010B09);; 中央财政林业科技推广项目(2011TK042)
作者(Authors): 焦洁洁;李绍进;黄坚钦;徐常青;夏国华;黄兴召;
DOI: 10.13925/j.cnki.gsxb.2012.05.031
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